Decision Workshops
The Euro crisis: Who will help ?
Decision Workshops looked at the events that could occur around a messy break up of the Euro, with Italy threatening to leave. But we didn't major on the mechanics of the break up itself, but on the role of other nations such as CHINA, RUSSIA, and THE GULF STATES.
How much were these nations be willing to step in and rescue Europe? How would they react to minimise their financial losses (or even make a profit)?
This workshop represented a few day's crisis as it looked like the Eurozone may imminently dissolve. Hasty agreements had to be made and hasty solutions proposed. How could anything be made to work in the short timescales represented? How could people trust others to follow through any promises made after it's all over?
Subject matter expertise was provided by noted futurist Stephen Aguilar-Millan of the European Futures Observatory, and that the event was supported and hosted by the financial think tank Z/Yen as part of their Long Finance initiative.
What was the opening scenario?
In this scenario a new government elected in Italy was unwilling to accept austerity and is preparing to return to the lira. Concerned about this, the EU had to consider how to prevent an Italian exit of the Euro.
Unwilling to "print" the vast amounts of money needed to "bail out" Italy, perhaps the answer was for the EU to get the co-operation of the newly emerging powers of Russia, China and the Gulf States, for a truly worldwide economic solution. But how could these states be persuaded to provide the vast financial investments required to calm the markets and maintain the status quo? Can everyone co-operate or will the countries act in their own self interest, to lose as little money as possible, or perhaps even profit from the deal?
Further details on the sequance of events building up to this scenario
The workshop in progress
Who was role-played?
In four players we looked at in the scenario represented Europe, Russia, China and Qatar (as a representative of the GCC nations). For details about who exactly the parties represent and why we chose these see the link below:
What happened in the workshop?
How dilemma analysis could have helped the negotiations
Europe started by explaining it's situation to the rest of the world. But the appealsl met with little support from China, and with guarded support from Russia and the GCC. They said they would make money available for buying Italian bonds, but only on condition that that some stringent poltical demands were met. Europe was not willing to do this, and so the deal fell through, and Europe was forced to use its own funds to buy the Italian bonds.
During the day the options table was used to record the positions of the teams during the negotiations, and keep the parties on track. Dilemma Analysis was not used to support any team or to mediate a solution.
This page shows how if dilemma analysis could have been used to support the European team, and the benefits that would have accrued had it done so